Type: report

Article abstract: We establish a framework for building conceptual models for species, communities, and landscapes in San Diego's Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) and present four case studies which illustrate the construction of conceptual models and their utility in identifying components for monitoring. We present case studies of conceptual models for a covered plant (Ambrosia pumila) and animal species (California gnatcatcher), a community (coastal sage scrub), and a landscape (coastal sage scrub-chaparral-grassland). As this is an iterative process, we present a first version of each model, followed by comments made at a workshop with the MSCP partners, our responses, and a revised version of the model. We also identify key uncertainties for each case study. We recommend four major steps in conceptual model development to help identify the parameters and elements to be monitored: 1. Identify the monitoring goals for the relevant species, community, or landscape. 2. Identify the major current and historical anthropogenic threats, natural drivers, and population or community parameters that dictate current or future status and trends. 3. Identify potential management responses for the relevant species or system. 4. Identify what to monitor based on the main parameters that link to the dynamics of the relevant species or community in the context of the monitoring goals. Using the case studies presented here as a guide, the MSCP partners can develop conceptual models for other species, communities, and landscapes as the monitoring program proceeds. These models can and should be updated as the knowledge base for these systems improves as a result of monitoring and management implementation.